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Find risk-free profit opportunities by exploiting price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi. Calculate optimal bet allocation and guaranteed returns.
Implied probability: 55% | Decimal odds: 1.818
Implied probability: 48% | Decimal odds: 2.083
Market is 3.00% overpriced - No arb opportunity
The current prices don't offer a risk-free arbitrage opportunity.
Try adjusting the prices. Arb opportunities exist when YES + NO prices sum to less than 100¢.
This calculator is great for learning, but real arbs appear and vanish in seconds. Get instant Telegram alerts when profitable opportunities emerge across Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt.
Arbitrage opportunities appear and disappear within seconds. A fast VPS (12ms vs 150ms VPN) gives you the speed edge to capture them.
Latency Comparison (Lower is Better)
~12ms
VPS (London)
~80ms
VPS (US East)
~150ms
VPN
Prediction markets like Polymarket (crypto-based) and Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) often have different prices for the same event. When these prices are inefficient, you can bet on both outcomes across platforms and guarantee a profit.
Event: "Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Dec 2026?"
Polymarket YES: 55¢ (implied 55% probability)
Kalshi NO: 48¢ (implied 48% probability)
Combined: 55% + 48% = 103% (should be 100%)
Wait - that's over 100%!
Actually, this means there's NO arb opportunity. For an arb to exist, the combined implied probabilities must be UNDER 100%. Let's see a real arb:
Polymarket YES: 55¢ (55% implied)
Kalshi NO: 42¢ (42% implied)
Combined: 55% + 42% = 97%
Arb exists! 3% guaranteed profit margin
Arbitrage opportunities are fleeting. Professional traders and bots constantly scan markets and close gaps within seconds. To capture arbs, you need:
A VPS in London/Frankfurt can ping Polygon nodes in 10-15ms vs 150ms+ from US via VPN.
Dedicated IP means no shared bandwidth. Your trades execute immediately.
Run monitoring bots that alert you when arbs appear, even while you sleep.
If a 3% arb appears and closes in 5 seconds:
US Users: Accessing Polymarket from the United States may violate Polymarket's Terms of Service and potentially US law (CFTC regulations). Kalshi is legal for US residents but has position limits.
This calculator is for educational purposes only. We do not encourage circumventing geo-restrictions or violating any platform's Terms of Service. Always consult with a legal professional.
See our full Terms of Service and Affiliate Disclosure.
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